These are downward revisions from the forecast they launched in late 2024, which predicted existing-home gross sales in 2025 to hit 4.9 million and new-home gross sales to extend by 11%.
NAR additionally up to date its 2026 projections. For subsequent 12 months, it dropped its new-home gross sales forecast from 8% to five% progress. Current-home gross sales at the moment are projected to develop 11%, which falls within the vary of 10% to fifteen% beforehand given by the commerce group.
Regardless of the marginally much less optimistic view, Yun was upbeat about the place the market is headed.
“The worst is over [for home sales],” Yun mentioned on the webinar detailing the replace. “The worst for stock is over. I believe the recession likelihood continues to be slim. Job additions, decrease mortgage charges and all of the components driving residence gross sales are transferring positively, so search for extra enterprise alternatives this 12 months.”
Strained affordability continues to carry again residence gross sales, and NAR’s up to date forecast doesn’t bode nicely in that regard. It beforehand predicted home-price progress of two% in 2025 and 2026, however it has revised these upward to three% and 4%, respectively.
NAR’s revised existing-home gross sales variety of 4.3 million is extra consistent with what different forecasters predicted for 2025. The prime quality for gross sales was NAR at 4.9 million and Realtor.com on the backside with 4 million.
HousingWire’s complete 2025 forecast — compiled by Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami and Altos founder Mike Simonsen — predicted 4.2 million in gross sales and a 3.5% leap in residence costs.
How are their predictions holding up thus far? In line with this week’s report from NAR, existing-home gross sales for February clocked in at a seasonally adjusted annual charge of 4.26 million, with the median sale worth rising 3.8%.